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Indonesia
This 2014 Article IV Consultation highlights that sound macroeconomic management and exchange rate flexibility have bolstered policy credibility and external resiliency in Indonesia over the past 18 months. In the face of Federal Reserve tapering and headwinds posed by slumping commodity prices, policy and reserve buffers have been strengthened through a clearer policy framework and better policy coordination. Notwithstanding commodity sector developments and global risk factors, the near-term outlook is broadly positive. Looking ahead, the main challenge for Indonesia is to chart a course to higher, more inclusive growth, while preserving macrofinancial stability and further strengthening the external position.
Ukraine
This paper discusses Ukraine’s First Review Under the Extended Arrangement. The authorities have made a strong start in implementing the program. All performance criteria (PCs) for end-March 2015 and, based on preliminary information, all PCs for end-June were met. Eight benchmarks were completed, albeit four of them with a delay and two were converted into prior actions for this review. Discussions with creditors have made progress toward a debt operation that would restore fiscal sustainability. In view of the authorities’ performance under the program, their policy commitments for the period ahead, and progress toward a debt operation in line with its stated objectives, the IMF staff recommends the completion of the first review.
Staff Guidance Note for Public Debt Sustainability Analysis in Market-Access Countries
The framework for fiscal policy and public debt sustainability analysis (DSA) in market-access countries (MACs) was reviewed by the Executive Board in August 2011.1 The review responded to shortcomings in identifying fiscal vulnerabilities and assessing risks to debt sustainability against the backdrop of increased concerns over fiscal policy and public debt sustainability in many advanced economies.
Monetization in Low- and Middle-Income Countries
The degree of an economy’s monetization, which has an important implication on economic growth, can be affected by the conduct of monetary policy, financial sector reform, and episodes of financial crises. The paper finds that monetization--measured by the ratio of broad money to nominal GDP-- in low- to middle-income countries is significantly correlated with per-capita GDP, real interest rates, and financial sector reform. It suggests that maintaining an upward momentum in monetization can be an important policy objective, particularly for low-income countries, and that monetary and financial sector policies need to be conducive to enhancing monetization.
Republic of Latvia
The IMF has approved an exceptional access Stand-By Arrangement for Latvia. The program is part of a coordinated international effort that has improved financial and economic stability. By early 2008, the fast growth has leveled off but severe vulnerabilities turned the slowdown into a crisis. Immediate steps to stabilize the financial sector and help stem reserve losses has focused on resolving the systemic Parex Bank, which is experiencing a deposit run. Measures to ensure long-term external viability has focused on fiscal and income policies.
Regional Economic Outlook, October 2014
Growth in much of Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to remain strong, driven by efforts to invest in infrastructure and strong agricultural production. The current Ebola outbreak in Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone is exacting a heavy toll, with spillovers to neighboring countries. External threats to the region's overall positive outlook include global financial conditions and a slowdown in emerging market growth.
Central Banking, Monetary Policy and Income Distribution
Part of The Elgar Series on Central Banking and Monetary Policy, this book explores the relationship between central banking, monetary policy and income distribution. The usual central bank mandate – that of exclusively fighting inflation – is being increasingly questioned by policymakers and academics. Many countries are finding that there is a need for broader mandates that will have an impact on economic activity, unemployment and other economic issues.
Regional Economic Outlook, October 2015
Growth in sub-Saharan Africa has weakened after more than a decade of solid growth, although this overall outlook masks considerable variation across the region. Some countries have been negatively affected by falling prices of their main commodity exports. Oil-exporting countries, including Nigeria and Angola, have been hit hard by falling revenues and the resulting fiscal adjustments, while middle-income countries such as Ghana, South Africa, and Zambia are also facing unfavorable conditions. This October 2015 report discusses the fiscal and monetary policy adjustments necessary for these countries to adapt to the new environment. Chapter 2 looks at competitiveness in the region, analyzing the substantial trade integration that accompanied the recent period of high growth, and policy actions to nurture new sources of growth. Chapter 3 looks at the implications for the region of persistently high income and gender inequality and ways to reduce them.
Ukraine
Ukraine requested a 24-month SDR 10.976 billion exceptional access Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) in April 2014 against the backdrop of large internal and external imbalances, considerable domestic political upheaval, and an emerging conflict in the East. Inconsistent macroeconomic policies in the preceding years had led to a potent combination of an overvalued pegged exchange rate, large and growing twin deficits, and a weak banking system by end-2013. Domestic political turmoil and conflict in Crimea and Eastern Ukraine added to these problems, creating an urgent need for financial assistance from the international community. The 2014 SBA (of about $17 billion) was Ukraine’s third since 2008.
Sovereign Debt Restructuring - Recent Developments and Implications for the Fund's Legal and Policy Framework
his paper reviews the recent application of the Fund’s policies and practices on sovereign debt restructuring. Specifically, the paper: • recaps in a holistic manner the various policies and practices that underpin the Fund's legal and policy framework for sovereign debt restructuring, including on debt sustainability, market access, financing assurances, arrears, private sector involvement (PSI), official sector involvement (OSI), and the use of legal instruments; • reviews how this framework has been applied in the context of Fund-supported programs and highlights the issues that have emerged in light of recent experience with debt restructuring; and • describes recent initiatives ...
