Seems you have not registered as a member of localhost.saystem.shop!
You may have to register before you can download all our books and magazines, click the sign up button below to create a free account.
The End of Oil
In this frank and balanced investigation, Roberts delves deep into the economics and politics of oil, and considers the promises and pitfalls of alternatives such as wind power, hybrid cars, and hydrogen. A new Afterword brings the book up to the minute.
Identifying News Shocks from Forecasts
We propose a method to identify the anticipated components of macroeconomic shocks in a structural VAR. We include empirical forecasts about each time series in the VAR. This introduces enough linear restrictions to identify each structural shock and to further decompose each one into “news” and “surprise” shocks. We estimate a VAR on US time series using forecast data from the SPF, CBO, Federal Reserve, and asset prices. Unanticipated fiscal stimulus and interest rate shocks we identify have typical effects that match existing evidence. In our news-surprise decomposition, we find that news drives around one quarter of US business cycle volatility. News explains a larger share of the variance due to fiscal shocks than for monetary policy shocks. Finally, we use the news structure of the shocks to estimate counterfactual policy rules, and compare the ability of fiscal and monetary policy to moderate output and inflation. We find that coordinated fiscal and monetary policy are substantially more effective than either tool is individually.
Banks on the Brink
International capital flow and domestic financial market structures explain why some countries are more vulnerable to banking crises.
Global Finance in the 21st Century
Global Finance in the 21st Century: Stability and Sustainability in a Fragmenting World explains finance and its regulation after the global financial crisis. The book introduces non-finance scholars into the wider debate regarding the conduct and regulation of finance to encourage broader discussion on important societal issues that relate to finance. The book also explores the ineffectiveness of the current approach to global prudential governance and places this discussion within the more expansive context of global governance and nationalism in the twenty-first century. The book argues that fragmentation and the growing trend of promoting informality and voluntarism has facilitated a ret...
Aging, Secular Stagnation and the Business Cycle
As of 2015, U.S. log output per capita was 12 percent below what its pre-2008 linear trend would predict. To understand why, I develop and estimate a model of the US with demographics, real and monetary shocks, and the occasionally binding ZLB on nominal rates. Demographic changes generate slow-moving trends in the real interest rate, employment, and productivity. I find that demographics alone can explain one-third of the gap between log output per capita and its linear trend in 2015. Demographics also lowered real rates, causing the ZLB to bind between 2009 and 2015, contributing to the slow recovery after the Great Recession.
Picking Presidents
Celebrated leadership expert and political scientist Gautam Mukunda provides a comprehensive, objective, and non-partisan method for answering the most important question in the world: is someone up to the job of president of the United States? In Picking Presidents, Gautam Mukunda sets his sights on presidential candidates, proposing an objective and tested method to assess whether they will succeed or fail if they win the White House. Combining political science, psychology, organizational behavior, and economics, Picking Presidents will enable every American to cast an informed vote. In his 2012 book Indispensable, which all but predicted the Trump presidency, Mukunda explained how both t...
Getting Into the Nitty-Gritty of Fiscal Multipliers: Small Details, Big Impacts
Despite the remarkable progress the literature has made throughout the past years in studying fiscal multipliers, estimates still vary considerably across studies. Partly, estimates differ because of context-specific variables that affect multipliers, but also because of the lack of a standardized framework to calculate and report them, making comparisons among studies hard to make. In this paper, we use a large panel of countries to study how some important methodological details affect the empirical estimates. Focusing on emerging economies, we show how slight changes in the filtering approach of fiscal forecast errors or the accumulation procedure of responses can significantly impact estimates. We emphasize that one of the most important features of estimating multipliers is the endogenous dynamic responses of fiscal variables to fiscal shocks, and therefore we argue against reporting multipliers as simply the output response to exogenous fiscal innovations. Although our baseline results are in line with the previous studies, our standardized framework allow us to make fairer comparisons of multiplier estimates across budgetary items and country income groups.
Allocation in the European Emissions Trading Scheme
A critical issue in dealing with climate change is deciding who has a right to emit carbon dioxide. Allocation in the European Emissions Trading Scheme provided the first in-depth description and analysis of the process by which rights to emit carbon dioxide were created and distributed in the European Union. This was the world's first large-scale experiment with an emission trading system for carbon dioxide and was likely to be copied by others if there was to be a global regime for limiting greenhouse gas emissions. The book comprises contributions from those responsible for putting the allocation into practice in ten representative member states and at the European Commission. The problems encountered in this process, the solutions found, and the choices they made, will be of interest to all who are concerned with climate policy and the use of emissions trading to combat climate change.
Subjectivism and Interpretative Methodology in Theory and Practice
Contemporary social science in general and economics in particular are dominated by the method of logical positivism in the British tradition. In contrast to the British philosophy, Subjectivism and Interpretative Methodology in Theory and Practice adopts subjectivism and interpretation methodology to understand human behavior and social action. Unlike positivism, this subjectivist approach, with its root in German idealism, takes human experience as the sole foundation of factual knowledge. All objective facts have to be interpreted and evaluated by human minds. In this approach, experience, knowledge, expectation, plans, errors and revision of plans are key elements. Specifically, this volume uses the subjectivist approach originated in Max Weber’s interpretation method, Alfred Schutz’s phenomenology, and Peter Berger and Thomas Luckmann’s sociology of knowledge to understand economic and social phenomena. The method brings human agency back into the forefront of analysis, adding new insights not only in economics and management, but also in sociology, politics, psychology and organizational behavior.
The Fiscal Multiplier in Small Open Economy
This paper studies the fiscal multiplier using a small-open-economy DSGE model enriched with financial frictions. It shows that the multiplier is large when frictions are present in domestic and international financial markets. The reason is that in the model government bonds are more liquid than private financial assets and that entrepreneurs face liquidity constraints. A bond-financed fiscal expansion eases these constraints and stimulates investment and hence growth. This mechanism, however, breaks down under the assumption of perfect international capital mobility, suggesting that conventional models which ignore the presence of frictions in international capital markets tend to underestimate the fiscal multiplier.
