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Advanced Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods
Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are now an indispensable tool in scientific computing. This book discusses recent developments of MCMC methods with an emphasis on those making use of past sample information during simulations. The application examples are drawn from diverse fields such as bioinformatics, machine learning, social science, combinatorial optimization, and computational physics. Key Features: Expanded coverage of the stochastic approximation Monte Carlo and dynamic weighting algorithms that are essentially immune to local trap problems. A detailed discussion of the Monte Carlo Metropolis-Hastings algorithm that can be used for sampling from distributions with intractable normalizing constants. Up-to-date accounts of recent developments of the Gibbs sampler. Comprehensive overviews of the population-based MCMC algorithms and the MCMC algorithms with adaptive proposals. This book can be used as a textbook or a reference book for a one-semester graduate course in statistics, computational biology, engineering, and computer sciences. Applied or theoretical researchers will also find this book beneficial.
Belief Functions: Theory and Applications
The theory of belief functions, also known as evidence theory or Dempster-Shafer theory, was first introduced by Arthur P. Dempster in the context of statistical inference, and was later developed by Glenn Shafer as a general framework for modeling epistemic uncertainty. These early contributions have been the starting points of many important developments, including the Transferable Belief Model and the Theory of Hints. The theory of belief functions is now well established as a general framework for reasoning with uncertainty, and has well understood connections to other frameworks such as probability, possibility and imprecise probability theories. This volume contains the proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Belief Functions that was held in Compiègne, France on 9-11 May 2012. It gathers 51 contributions describing recent developments both on theoretical issues (including approximation methods, combination rules, continuous belief functions, graphical models and independence concepts) and applications in various areas including classification, image processing, statistics and intelligent vehicles.
Bayesian Data Analysis, Third Edition
Now in its third edition, this classic book is widely considered the leading text on Bayesian methods, lauded for its accessible, practical approach to analyzing data and solving research problems. Bayesian Data Analysis, Third Edition continues to take an applied approach to analysis using up-to-date Bayesian methods. The authors—all leaders in the statistics community—introduce basic concepts from a data-analytic perspective before presenting advanced methods. Throughout the text, numerous worked examples drawn from real applications and research emphasize the use of Bayesian inference in practice. New to the Third Edition Four new chapters on nonparametric modeling Coverage of weakly ...
Inferential Models
A New Approach to Sound Statistical ReasoningInferential Models: Reasoning with Uncertainty introduces the authors' recently developed approach to inference: the inferential model (IM) framework. This logical framework for exact probabilistic inference does not require the user to input prior information. The authors show how an IM produces meaning
Case Studies in Bayesian Statistics
The 4th Workshop on Case Studies in Bayesian Statistics was held at the Car negie Mellon University campus on September 27-28, 1997. As in the past, the workshop featured both invited and contributed case studies. The former were presented and discussed in detail while the latter were presented in poster format. This volume contains the four invited case studies with the accompanying discus sion as well as nine contributed papers selected by a refereeing process. While most of the case studies in the volume come from biomedical research the reader will also find studies in environmental science and marketing research. INVITED PAPERS In Modeling Customer Survey Data, Linda A. Clark, William S...
Mandates, Parties, and Voters
Shows how the size of an election victory influences subsequent candidate behavior, voter behavior, and even the economy.
Applied Bayesian Modeling and Causal Inference from Incomplete-Data Perspectives
This book brings together a collection of articles on statistical methods relating to missing data analysis, including multiple imputation, propensity scores, instrumental variables, and Bayesian inference. Covering new research topics and real-world examples which do not feature in many standard texts. The book is dedicated to Professor Don Rubin (Harvard). Don Rubin has made fundamental contributions to the study of missing data. Key features of the book include: Comprehensive coverage of an imporant area for both research and applications. Adopts a pragmatic approach to describing a wide range of intermediate and advanced statistical techniques. Covers key topics such as multiple imputation, propensity scores, instrumental variables and Bayesian inference. Includes a number of applications from the social and health sciences. Edited and authored by highly respected researchers in the area.
Multistate Models for the Analysis of Life History Data
Multistate Models for the Analysis of Life History Data provides the first comprehensive treatment of multistate modeling and analysis, including parametric, nonparametric and semiparametric methods applicable to many types of life history data. Special models such as illness-death, competing risks and progressive processes are considered, as well as more complex models. The book provides both theoretical development and illustrations of analysis based on data from randomized trials and observational cohort studies in health research. It features: Discusses a wide range of applications of multistate models, Presents methods for both continuously and intermittently observed life history processes, Gives a thorough discussion of conditionally independent censoring and observation processes, Discusses models with random effects and joint models for two or more multistate processes, Discusses and illustrates software for multistate analysis that is available in R, Target audience includes those engaged in research and applications involving multistate models.
Game-Theoretic Foundations for Probability and Finance
Game-theoretic probability and finance come of age Glenn Shafer and Vladimir Vovk’s Probability and Finance, published in 2001, showed that perfect-information games can be used to define mathematical probability. Based on fifteen years of further research, Game-Theoretic Foundations for Probability and Finance presents a mature view of the foundational role game theory can play. Its account of probability theory opens the way to new methods of prediction and testing and makes many statistical methods more transparent and widely usable. Its contributions to finance theory include purely game-theoretic accounts of Ito’s stochastic calculus, the capital asset pricing model, the equity prem...
Hidden Markov Models for Time Series
Hidden Markov Models for Time Series: An Introduction Using R, Second Edition illustrates the great flexibility of hidden Markov models (HMMs) as general-purpose models for time series data. The book provides a broad understanding of the models and their uses. After presenting the basic model formulation, the book covers estimation, forecasting, decoding, prediction, model selection, and Bayesian inference for HMMs. Through examples and applications, the authors describe how to extend and generalize the basic model so that it can be applied in a rich variety of situations. The book demonstrates how HMMs can be applied to a wide range of types of time series: continuous-valued, circular, mult...
