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Globalization and the New Normal
This study expands the empirical specification of Cerra and Saxena (2008), and allows short-term output growth regimes to be determined by globalization. Relying on a non-linear dynamic panel representation, it reconciles the earlier results in the literature regarding the two opposite narratives of the effects of globalization on output growth. Countries experience higher growth, on average, the more open and integrated they are into the world. However, once they reach a certain globalization threshold (endogenously estimated), countries may also experience a new normal, persistently lower short-term output growth following a financial crisis. The benefits, as well as vulnerabilities, accrue earlier in the globalization process for low- and middle-income countries. To solely reap the globalization benefits on growth, sound policies should be in place to mitigate the negative effects stemming from increased vulnerabilities brought by globalization.
Taming Financial Development to Reduce Crises
This paper assesses whether and how financial development triggers the occurrence of banking crises. It builds on a database that includes financial development as well as financial access, depth and efficiency for almost 100 countries. Through estimation of a dynamic logit panel model, it appears that financial development, from an institutional dimension and to a lesser extent from a market dimension, triggers financial instability within a one- to two-year horizon. Additionally, whereas financial access is destabilizing for advanced countries, it is stabilizing for emerging and low income ones. Both results have important implications for macroprudential policies and financial regulations.
The Global Economic Recovery 10 Years After the 2008 Financial Crisis
This paper takes stock of the global economic recovery a decade after the 2008 financial crisis. Output losses after the crisis appear to be persistent, irrespective of whether a country suffered a banking crisis in 2007–08. Sluggish investment was a key channel through which these losses registered, accompanied by long-lasting capital and total factor productivity shortfalls relative to precrisis trends. Policy choices preceding the crisis and in its immediate aftermath influenced postcrisis variation in output. Underscoring the importance of macroprudential policies and effective supervision, countries with greater financial vulnerabilities in the precrisis years suffered larger output losses after the crisis. Countries with stronger precrisis fiscal positions and those with more flexible exchange rate regimes experienced smaller losses. Unprecedented and exceptional policy actions taken after the crisis helped mitigate countries’ postcrisis output losses.
Investing for Better: Harnessing the Four Driving Forces of Asset Management to Build a Wealthier and More Equitable World
Proven methods for successfully serving clients who prioritize investments that help improve the world while generating healthy profits Environmental, social, and corporate governance (ESG) is big, and it’s getting bigger. An entire generation of investors want their investments to reflect their values. If you have clients in this category, you need to read Investing for Better, which reveals the inherent challenge this style of investing poses. ESG pioneer and seasoned asset manager, Daniel Seiler maps out the current state of the global asset management industry and outlines the primal forces that influence the business of money management. He proposes a new model of asset management tha...
World Economic Outlook, October 2018
Global growth for 2018–19 is projected to remain steady at its 2017 level, but its pace is less vigorous than projected in April and it has become less balanced. Downside risks to global growth have risen in the past six months and the potential for upside surprises has receded. Global growth is projected at 3.7 percent for 2018–19—0.2 percentage point lower for both years than forecast in April. The downward revision reflects surprises that suppressed activity in early 2018 in some major advanced economies, the negative effects of the trade measures implemented or approved between April and mid-September, as well as a weaker outlook for some key emerging market and developing economie...
The Archive of the Sing-Akademie zu Berlin. Catalogue
With The Archive of the Sing-Akademie zu Berlin. Catalogue a complete catalogue of the music archive of the Sing-Akademie zu Berlin is now available for the first time since the archive, which disappeared during World War II, was rediscovered in 1999. (The whole work is complete in English and German). Since 2001 the more than 260,000 pages of music manuscripts, copies and first prints (from 17th to early 19th cent.) were revised by two musicologists which compiled an index of shelf marks and an index of composers. Thus detailed searches in the holdings of the archive (which were filmed since 2002 in severeal parts on microfiche at K. G. Saur) are possible for the first time. The Catalogue l...
