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IMF Research Bulletin, December 2016
The Research Summaries in this issue of the IMF Research Bulletin cover “Tax Capacity and Growth” (by Vitor Gaspar, Laura Jaramillo, and Philippe Wingender), and “U.S. Shale Revolution and Its Spillover Effects on the Global Economy” (Ravi Balakrishnan, Keiko Honjo, Akito Matsumoto, and Andrea Pescatori). The Q&A coauthored by Amadou Sy and Mariama Sow covers “Seven Questions about the Relationship between Country Finance and Governance.” A listing of recent IMF Working Papers, Staff Discussion Notes, and Recommended Readings from IMF Publications is included in the IMF Research Bulletin. Readers can also find news on free-to-view articles from IMF Economic Review and a call for conference papers in this issue of the Bulletin.
Catalogue of the Library of E. G. Squier. Edited by Joseph Sabin. To be Sold by Auction, Etc
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Regional Economic Outlook, April 2017, Western Hemisphere Department
With the global economy gaining some momentum, economies of Latin America and the Caribbean are recovering from a recession at the regional level in 2016. This gradual improvement can be understood as tale of two adjustments, external and fiscal, that are ongoing in response to earlier shocks. But headwinds from commodity terms-of-trade shocks and country-specific domestic factors are fading, paving the way for real GDP to grow by about 1 percent in 2017. Regional activity is expected to pick up further momentum in 2018, but at a slower pace than previously anticipated, while medium-term growth is projected to remain modest at about 2.6 percent. The outlook is shaped by key shifts in the glo...
Argentina
This paper discusses Argentina’s investment rate which was well below the average of Latin American countries and that of a peer group of advanced and emerging market countries, with a larger gap in private investment. Raising investment prospects would be essential to boost economic activity. The administration that took office in December 2015 has emphasized the importance of generating an investor friendly environment that allows Argentina to recover some of the growth opportunities lost over the last few decades. Although quantifying the capital accumulation gap is a clearly a difficult task, one way of doing so is to look at the difference between Argentina’s capital-labor ratio and that of the selected peer group of countries. Argentina’s investment rates and capital-output ratios are also compared with estimates of their steady state values derived from standard neoclassical growth models. Argentina’s investment rate would need to increase significantly to eliminate the capital accumulation gap built during the last two decades, and this could significantly accelerate GDP growth.
Nicaragua
The 2015 Article IV Consultation presents economic outlook and risks of Nicaragua. Over the last three years, real GDP growth has averaged 4.8 percent, one of the highest in the region, while inflation has remained anchored by the exchange rate regime. Poverty has fallen sharply, but unemployment has increased due to a decline in the manufacturing sector. The current policy mix is broadly adequate to maintain macroeconomic stability in the near term, but Nicaragua needs to fortify its policy framework. In particular, reducing tax exonerators and exemptions and improving the targeting of fiscal subsidies would strengthen the efficiency and equity of public finances and contribute to rebuilding fiscal buffers.
The Invisible Hand in Virtual Worlds
Studies the economic order that governs virtual worlds and ways individuals work together to govern social relations in the digital space.
Uruguay
This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights that Uruguay is demonstrating resilience in the face of recessions in its large neighbors. The economic slowdown has bottomed out in 2016 and there are signs that the economy is on an incipient recovery path. Financial stability risks are limited. Nonperforming loans remain relatively low, at 3.5 percent of total loans, while provisions are high. Real growth is estimated at 1.2 percent in 2016 and projected to reach 1.4 percent in 2017, as the external environment strengthens, together with private consumption.
The Rotarian
Established in 1911, The Rotarian is the official magazine of Rotary International and is circulated worldwide. Each issue contains feature articles, columns, and departments about, or of interest to, Rotarians. Seventeen Nobel Prize winners and 19 Pulitzer Prize winners – from Mahatma Ghandi to Kurt Vonnegut Jr. – have written for the magazine.
