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Five Years After
The proximity of the European Union, the prospect of membership, and actual entry by the New Member States (NMS) increased economic and financial integration in the region, leading to fast economic growth based on sizeable capital inflows. EU membership helped in developing sound macroeconomic and financial stability frameworks in the NMS. However, these frameworks remain work in progress and as such could not safeguard against private sector exuberance or risky policies, especially in the face of an unprecedented global financial crisis. Hence, more prudent policies and further strengthening of policy frameworks, especially with respect to financial stability, seem warranted.
Iceland
This paper discusses Iceland’s Fourth Post-Program Monitoring Discussions. Iceland’s economy has grown strongly on the back of booming tourism. Real GDP grew 3.3 percent in 2013, despite a drop in investment spending. Net exports were the primary driver. High frequency indicators suggest strong net exports—including steady growth in off-season tourism—have continued in Q1 2014, along with rising private consumption. Inflation has fallen below the Central Bank of Iceland’s 2.5 percent target but long-term inflation expectations remain noticeably above this level. The government’s medium-term fiscal objectives deserve support, but further effort is needed to achieve them.
Albania
Growth was strong in 2018, backed by high electricity production. Inflation remains subdued, notwithstanding very accommodative monetary conditions. The fiscal stance in 2018 was somewhat tighter than expected, supporting a further decline in public debt. The medium-term economic outlook is broadly favorable, with growth projected to converge to 4 percent and a further narrowing of the current account deficit. However, significant risks remain. Growth is vulnerable to a continued or sharper economic slowdown in the main trading partners. The main vulnerabilities remain in the fiscal sector, as public debt is still high, and contingent liabilities are increasing. Albania’s relatively large financing needs also pose risks that could materialize, in particular, in case of tightening external financing conditions.
France
This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights that the economic recovery is picking up in France, with real GDP growth projected to reach 1.6 percent in 2017 and 1.8 percent in 2018. Growth is primarily driven by buoyant corporate investment, a rebound in residential construction, and solid consumer demand. Net exports, by contrast, have been a drag on growth, and France’s external position is assessed to be weaker than implied by economic fundamentals. Private sector job creation has begun to accelerate moderately and the unemployment rate has begun to recede moderately from its 10 percent post-crisis mark. Medium-term prospects will critically depend on the implementation of the reform agenda.
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Pre-pandemic, Bosnia and Herzegovina’s (BiH) economy was growing, but at a pace below the more successful countries in Eastern Europe. The pandemic generated a substantial output contraction in 2020. Early in the pandemic, the authorities successfully implemented restrictions to prevent the spread of the virus and took measures to support firms and households. However, the ongoing second wave poses additional challenges. A gradual recovery is expected for the second half of 2021. Political disagreements about policy coordination at the BiH State level have hampered program implementation under the 2016 EFF arrangement and the deepening of the single economic space. The challenge is to deal with the pandemic and put the economy on a higher medium-term growth trajectory.
Hungary
This 2019 Article IV Consultation discusses that in an increasingly uncertain global economic environment, Hungary’s growth registered one of the highest rates in Europe in 2018. The economy now appears to be running above capacity and wages are growing rapidly amid historically low unemployment. It is thus likely that growth will slow down over the medium term. Supply-side reforms can help sustain the momentum. Policies have reduced vulnerabilities substantially; however, measures to support the targeted fiscal consolidation could be more ambitious to ensure that room for fiscal policy manoeuvre is rebuilt. Wages outstripping labor productivity growth, slower export growth, and shortcomings in the business environment for small and medium enterprises call for invigorating structural reform efforts. Improvements in competitiveness are needed to sustain rapid income convergence and address demographic challenges. The government’s competitiveness program contains important elements. Focus should be on improving the business environment, enhancing the legal and regulatory framework, and increasing labor force participation.
Bulgaria
This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights that the Bulgarian economy is performing well. Growth has been on an upward trend and is estimated to reach 3.8 percent in 2017 and 2018, driven by strong exports, easier financial conditions, and growing confidence. The current account remained in surplus in 2017, despite rapid wage growth. The economy shows signs of a closing output gap. Headline inflation turned positive in 2017 and inflationary pressure is rising. Fiscal outcomes have been stronger than budgeted in recent years, reflecting mainly revenue overperformance and under-execution of capital spending. The main challenge is to translate this recent recovery into sustained and inclusive growth and convergence with other European Union countries.
Informal Funds Transfer Systems
Since the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, there has been increased public interest in informal funds transfer (IFT) systems. This paper examines the informal hawala system, an IFT system found predominantly in the Middle East and South Asia. The paper examines the historical and socioeconomic context within which the hawala has evolved, the operational features that make it susceptible to potential financial abuse, the fiscal and monetary implications for hawala-remitting and hawala-recipient countries, and current regulatory and supervisory responses.
Fiscal Stimulus to the Rescue? Short-Run Benefits and Potential Long-Run Costs of Fiscal Deficits
This paper uses the IMF's Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal Model to compute shortrun multipliers of fiscal stimulus measures and long-run crowding-out effects of higher debt. Multipliers of two-year stimulus range from 0.2 to 2.2 depending on the fiscal instrument, the extent of monetary accommodation and the presence of a financial accelerator mechanism. A permanent 0.5 percentage point increase in the U.S. deficit to GDP ratio raises the U.S. tax burden and world real interest rates in the long run, thereby reducing U.S. and rest of the world output by 0.3-0.6 and 0.2 percent, respectively.
Tackling Small and Medium Enterprise Problem Loans in Europe
The global financial crisis has left a large private sector debt overhang and high levels of non- performing loans (NPLs) in several European countries. Small and medium-size enterprises (SMEs) represent a significant and weak segment of the nonfinancial corporate sector. SMEs face a number of legal, financial, and regulatory challenges to restructuring that differ from those of larger corporates, such as a rigid and costly insolvency regime, a higher fixed cost to loan restructuring, and the lack of alternative sources of financing. Given SMEs’ large presence and close links to the banking system, addressing the SME loan problem in Europe will be critical for strengthening bank and corporate balance sheets and supporting a more robust and sustained recovery.
