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Impossible Certainty
This report is one of a series from a RAND Project AIR FORCE project, "The Cost of Future Military Aircraft: Historical Cost Estimating Relationships and Cost Reduction Initiatives."
Budget Estimating Relationships for Depot-level Reparables in the Air Force Flying Hour Program
Budget estimating relationships (BERs) for flying depot-level reparables (DLRs) explain the direct effect of specified variables on obligated funds associated with spare parts that directly support the U.S. Air Force (USAF) Flying Hour Program. In FY02, net sales of DLRs to Air Force commands hit historic highs. To provide the Air Force Cost Analysis Improvement Group with a tool to better understand the commands-- budgetary submissions, we develop several explanatory BERs to understand why flying DLRs are at their particular levels. Using longitudinal regression statistical methods, we explain the historical net sales of flying DLRs using estimating models that relate net sales to the contemporaneous values of aircraft characteristics, operational tempo, and time-related variables. This is but one part of a larger project to develop better estimating methods for use by the acquisition community and to examine the impact of Air Force and DoD policies on weapon system costs. The findings will also be of interest to those in the national security community who are involved in analyzing alternative military postures, and to members of the aircraft industry's analytical community.
Software Cost Estimation and Sizing Methods
Recommends an approach to improving the utility and accuracy of software cost estimates by exposing uncertainty (in understanding the project) and reducing the risks associated with developing the estimates. The approach focuses on characteristics of the estimation process (such as which methods and models are most appropriate for a given situation) and the nature of the data used (such as software size), describing symptoms and warning signs of risk in each factor, and risk-mitigation strategies.
The Global Transformation
This book shows how the political, economic, military and cultural revolutions of the nineteenth century shaped modern international relations.
Defence Inflation
Defence inflation is a recurring factor in determining defence spending. It is widely reported in official government publications and in the trade press, but remains relatively neglected by defence and peace economists. In this book, international contributors from Finland, Norway, Sweden, the UK and the USA distinguish between defence inflation and cost escalation, and identify the causes of both. They use specific case studies to address a wide variety of theoretical and empirical issues and key questions, including the following: Does defence inflation affect all countries? What are its effects? Why does it occur? How (if at all) can defence inflation be controlled? While most industry a...
Sources of Weapon System Cost Growth
Previous studies have shown that the Department of Defense (DoD) and the military departments have historically underestimated the cost of new weapon systems. Quantifying cost growth is important, but the larger issue is why cost growth occurs. To address that issue, this analysis uses data from Selected Acquisition Reports to examine 35 mature, but not necessarily complete, major defense acquisition programs similar to the type and complexity of those typically managed by the Air Force. The programs are first examined as a complete set, then Air Force and non-Air Force programs are analyzed separately to determine whether the causes of cost growth in the two groups differ. Four major source...
Is the Ratio of Investment between Research and Development to Production in Major Defense Acquisition Programs Experiencing Fundamental Change?
With the advent of the information age, both commercial industry and the Department of Defense are moving towards complex R&D-intensive systems over the simpler, mass-produced systems of the industrial age. This CSIS report analyzes the historical trends in the relationship of production costs to development costs in complex acquisition programs. To understand this phenomenon, the study team examines it at two different levels. The first is the macro investment level where portfolio management trade-offs are made between aggregate development and procurement and between programs. The second level is individual programs where the ambitions of the program and the underlying technology shape the resources required for a program to complete development.
Democracy's Arsenal
An expert explains why the security needs of the twenty-first century require a transformation of the defense industry of the twentieth century. New geopolitical realities—including terrorism, pandemics, rogue nuclear states, resource conflicts, insurgencies, mass migration, economic collapse, and cyber attacks—have created a dramatically different national-security environment for America. Twentieth-century defense strategies, technologies, and industrial practices will not meet the security requirements of a post-9/11 world. In Democracy's Arsenal, Jacques Gansler describes the transformations needed in government and industry to achieve a new, more effective system of national defense. Drawing on his decades of experience in industry, government, and academia, Gansler argues that the old model of ever-increasing defense expenditures on largely outmoded weapons systems must be replaced by a strategy that combines a healthy economy, effective international relations, and a strong (but affordable) national security posture. The defense industry must remake itself to become responsive and relevant to the needs of twenty-first-century security.
Optimizing U.S. Air Force and Department of Defense Review of Air Force Acquisition Programs
The Department of Defense (DOD) spends over $300 billion each year to develop, produce, field and sustain weapons systems (the U.S. Air Force over $100 billion per year). DOD and Air Force acquisitions programs often experience large cost overruns and schedule delays leading to a loss in confidence in the defense acquisition system and the people who work in it. Part of the DOD and Air Force response to these problems has been to increase the number of program and technical reviews that acquisition programs must undergo. This book looks specifically at the reviews that U.S. Air Force acquisition programs are required to undergo and poses a key question: Can changes in the number, content, or...
Security Force Assistance in Afghanistan
Security force assistance (SFA) is a central pillar of the counterinsurgency campaign being waged by U.S. and coalition forces in Afghanistan. This monograph analyzes SFA efforts in Afghanistan over time, documents U.S. and international approaches to building the Afghan force from 2001 to 2009, and provides observations and recommendations that emerged from extensive fieldwork in Afghanistan in 2009 and their implications for the U.S. Army.
