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Assessing Oil and Non-Oil GDP Growth from Space: An Application to Yemen 2012-17
This paper uses an untapped source of satellite-recorded nightlights and gas flaring data to characterize the contraction of economic activity in Yemen throughout the ongoing conflict that erupted in 2015. Using estimated nightlights elasticities on a sample of 72 countries for real GDP and 28 countries for oil GDP over 6 years, I derive oil and non-oil GDP growth for Yemen. I show that real GDP contracted by a cumulative 24 percent over 2015-17 against 50 percent according to official figures. I also find that the impact of the conflict has been geographically uneven with economic activity contracting more in some governorates than in others.
Rebalancing Growth in Asia
Asia’s recent economic performance has been remarkable. However, the rapid growth that Asia has experienced cannot be taken for granted. This volume analyzes Asia’s need to rebalance its growth model toward domestic demand and what that rebalancing would entail. It discusses the nature of the challenge across economies in the region.
The Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on Emerging Financial Markets
The Global Financial Crisis of 2007-2009 has highlighted the resilience of the financial markets and economies from the developing world. This title investigates and assesses the impact and response to the crisis from an emerging markets perspective including asset pricing, contagion, financial intermediation, market structure and regulation.
Optimal Monetary Policy Under Bounded Rationality
The form of bounded rationality characterizing the representative agent is key in the choice of the optimal monetary policy regime. While inflation targeting prevails for myopia that distorts agents' inflation expectations, price level targeting emerges as the optimal policy under myopia regarding the output gap, revenue, or interest rate. To the extent that bygones are not bygones under price level targeting, rational inflation expectations is a minimal condition for optimality in a behavioral world. Instrument rules implementation of this optimal policy is shown to be infeasible, questioning the ability of simple rules à la Taylor (1993) to assist the conduct of monetary policy. Bounded rationality is not necessarily associated with welfare losses.
Georgia
The Georgian economy has performed strongly in 2022 as adverse spillovers expected from the war in Ukraine have not materialized thus far. Buoyant tourism revenues, a surge in war-related immigration and financial inflows, and a rise in transit trade through Georgia have lifted growth and fiscal revenues, strengthened the current account balance and the lari, and supported reserve accumulation. Inflation remains elevated, reflecting still high commodity prices and strong domestic demand. Growth and inflation are expected to moderate in 2023 with subsiding external inflows, less favorable global economic and financial conditions, smaller fiscal deficits, and a sufficiently tight monetary policy stance. In 2024, growth is projected to converge to its potential rate and inflation is forecast to fall to the NBG’s target.
Corporate Debt Restructuring in East Asia
This paper summarizes some lessons from international experience for corporate debt restructuring in east Asia. Basic principles of debt restructuring are described, the experiences of Mexico, Chile, the United Kingdom, Hungary, and Poland are examined, and general lessons are drawn. The approaches currently being adopted in Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia and Thailand are then reviewed in the context of these lessons.
Introducing a New Broad-based Index of Financial Development
There is a vast body of literature estimating the impact of financial development on economic growth, inequality, and economic stability. A typical empirical study approximates financial development with either one of two measures of financial depth – the ratio of private credit to GDP or stock market capitalization to GDP. However, these indicators do not take into account the complex multidimensional nature of financial development. The contribution of this paper is to create nine indices that summarize how developed financial institutions and financial markets are in terms of their depth, access, and efficiency. These indices are then aggregated into an overall index of financial development. With the coverage of 183 countries on annual frequency between 1980 and 2013, the database should offer a useful analytical tool for researchers and policy makers.
Sudan: Request for a 39-Month Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Sudan
Since the 2019 popular revolution, Sudan’s transitional government has taken difficult steps to right decades of economic mismanagement. The challenges facing the authorities remain significant, but they have fulfilled the necessary conditions to reach the HIPC Decision Point (DP). This is an historic achievement and Sudan is set to clear its arrears and normalize relations with the IMF and other international financial institutions. This will unlock Sudan’s access to new financial resources to fund much needed development and social spending.
International Capital Markets
These papers provide a cutting-edge overview of general issues regarding world capital markets, experience in developing countries, and capital market regulation, which many economists believe could turn into the number one topic in international business and economics.
German-Central European Supply Chain-Cluster Report
This paper discusses key findings of the Cluster Report on German-Central European Supply Chain (GCESC). Since the 1990s, a GCESC has evolved, manufacturing goods for export to the rest of the world. Reflecting this, bilateral trade linkages between Germany and the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and the Slovak Republic (CE4) have expanded rapidly. Participation in the GCESC has led to technology transfers to CE4 countries and accelerated income convergence. Export growth in knowledge-intensive sectors has been particularly rapid in the CE4. It is also observed that complementarities between supply chain activities and domestic production have led to greater synchronization of the business cycle among GCESC countries.
