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Design for a New Europe
How did the process of European integration break down; how can it be repaired? In European Integration, 1950–2003, John Gillingham reviewed the history of the European project and predicted the rejection of the European constitution. Now the world's leading expert on the EU maps out a route to save the Union. The four chapters of this penetrating, fiercely-argued and often witty book subject today's dysfunctional European Union to critical scrutiny in an attempt to show how it is stunting economic growth, sapping the vitality of national governments, and undermining competitiveness. It explains how the attempt to revive the EU by turning it into a champion of research and development will backfire and demonstrates how Europe's great experiment in political and economic union can succeed only if the wave of liberal reform now under way in the historically downtrodden east is allowed to sweep away the prosperous and complacent west.
Italy
This Selected Issues Paper focuses on structural reforms and fiscal devaluation in Italy. Italy’s economy has a number of important strengths. Despite these strengths, Italy’s economic performance has lagged behind its peers. The authorities’ reform plans are under way in different sectors of the country. In most cases, if reforms go in the right direction, their impact would depend on consistent and prompt implementation. The model-based analysis also suggests that the potential gains to the economy from deeper reforms can be sizable.
Sovereign Debt
An intelligent analysis of the dangers, opportunities, and consequences of global sovereign debt Sovereign debt is growing internationally at a terrifying rate, as nations seek to prop up their collapsing economies. One only needs to look at the sovereign risk pressures faced by Greece, Spain, and Ireland to get an idea of how big this problem has become. Understanding this dilemma is now more important than ever, that's why Robert Kolb has compiled Sovereign Debt. With this book as your guide, you'll gain a better perspective on the essential issues surrounding sovereign debt and default through discussions of national defaults, systemic risk, associated costs, and much more. Historical stu...
The More the Merrier? A Machine Learning Algorithm for Optimal Pooling of Panel Data
We leverage insights from machine learning to optimize the tradeoff between bias and variance when estimating economic models using pooled datasets. Specifically, we develop a simple algorithm that estimates the similarity of economic structures across countries and selects the optimal pool of countries to maximize out-of-sample prediction accuracy of a model. We apply the new alogrithm by nowcasting output growth with a panel of 102 countries and are able to significantly improve forecast accuracy relative to alternative pools. The algortihm improves nowcast performance for advanced economies, as well as emerging market and developing economies, suggesting that machine learning techniques using pooled data could be an important macro tool for many countries.
Managing Sovereign Debt and Debt Markets through a Crisis - Practical Insights and Policy Lessons
The crisis highlighted the importance of debt management in containing debt-related risks and the associated impact on debt markets. The impact of the crisis on debt levels, and the consequent implications for fiscal consolidation, has been the subject of much discussion and analysis. However, there has been relatively less focus on the issue of how that debt should be managed, including how its composition should be structured so as to mitigate key risk exposures, and its implications for debt market functioning. That task proved significantly complex and challenging through the crisis, particularly in advanced economies, with additional dimensions of risk revealed.
Measurement and Use of Cash by Half the World's Population
Measurement and Use of Cash by Half the World's Population
Italian Sovereign Spreads
Volatility in Italian sovereign spreads has increased since mid-2011. This paper finds that news on the euro area debt crisis and country specific events were important drivers of sovereign spreads. Movements in sovereign spreads affect CDS spreads and bond yields of Italian banks, and are transmitted rapidly to firm lending rates. Banks with lower capital ratios and higher nonperforming loans were found to be more sensitive to swings in sovereign spreads. Credit supply constraints due to bank funding shortages from the sovereign debt crisis were a major factor behind the lending slowdown in late 2011, while in 2012 weak demand appears to have been driving changes in credit more than supply.
