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Macroprudential Policies and Capital Controls Over Financial Cycles
In this paper we assess the effectiveness of macroprudential policies and capital controls in supporting financial stability. We construct a large and granular dataset on prudential and capital flow management measures covering 53 countries during 1996-2016. Conditional on a credit boom, we study the impact of these policy measures on the probability of the credit boom ending in a bust. Our analysis suggests that macroprudential tools are effective from this perspective. If credit booms are accompanied by capital flow surges, in addition to macroprudential tools, capital controls on money market instruments including cross-border interbank lending tend to contribute to reducing the likelihood of a credit bust.
Golden Growth
The public debt crisis in Europe has shaken the confidence not just in the Euro, but in the European model. Aging and uneconomical Europeans are being squeezed between innovative Americans and efficient Asians, it is said. With debt and demographics dragging down them down, one hears that European economies will not grow much unless radically new ways are discovered. The end of complacency in Europe is a good thing, but this loss of confidence could be dangerous. The danger is that in a rush to rejuvenate growth, the attractive attributes of the European development model could be abandoned along with the weak. In fact, the European growth model has many strong points and enviable accomplish...
Nepal
The mission conducted a diagnostic review of the financial sector oversight capacity and proposed a Technical Assistance Roadmap (TARM) to support the authorities’ efforts to strengthen the identification, analysis, and mitigation of risks to financial stability in Nepal. Two modules were undertaken: (i) the financial stability module, focused on areas agreed with the NRB during the scoping stage: banking supervision and regulation, stress testing, crisis management, payment systems, and financial inclusion; and (ii) the financial sector statistics module, focused on key data gaps hampering financial stability analysis, as well as statistical reporting to the IMF’s STA.
Macroprudential Policies in Southeastern Europe
This paper presents a detailed account of the rich set of macroprudential measures taken in four Southeastern European countries—Bulgaria, Croatia, Romania, and Serbia—during their synchronized boom and bust cycles in 2003–12, and assesses their effectiveness. We find that only strong measures helped contain domestic credit growth, the share of foreigncurrency- denominated loans provided by the domestic banking sector, or the domestic banking sector’s reliance on foreign borrowing during the boom years. We also find that circumvention via direct external borrowing often fully offset the effectiveness of these strict measures, and thatmeasures taken during the bust had no discernible impact. We conclude that (i) proper calibration of macroprudential measures is of the essence; (ii) only strong, broad-based macroprudential measures can contain credit booms; (iii) econometric studies of macroprudential policy effectiveness should focus on measures rather than on instruments (i.e. classes of measures) and in so doing allow for possible non-linear and state-contingent effects.
Global Banking Crises and Emerging Markets
This timely reader of seminal papers published by Palgrave on behalf of Comparative Economic Studies, examines how and why foreign banks enter emerging markets and the positive benefits they bring to the host countries.
Development of Financial Markets in Central Europe
Financial markets in the CE4 countries are still shallow compared to other advanced EU countries. While the government bond markets are comparable in size, measured by capitalization in percent of GDP, the private bond, private credit, and equity markets lag behind. Empirical analysis in this paper helps identify factors that explain this phenomenon. We find that the observed differences cannot be explained by macroeconomic variables only, but incorporating indicators of institutional development and external funding eliminates the gap in the case of the equity and private credit markets. However, for the private bond market a significant gap remains even after accounting for these factors.
Czech Republic
This technical note summarizes stress tests undertaken for the Czech banking system as part of the Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) Update. The tests were tailored to capture the specificities of the Czech banking system, characterized by a high share of foreign-owned banks. The program addressed current market developments and medium-term structural trends. All banks were assessed against solvency, liquidity, and contagion risks. The solvency tests revealed that the Czech banking system is robust even against substantial shocks on a standalone basis.
The Oxford Handbook of Time and Politics
The Oxford Handbook on Time and Politics is the first major publication that surveys time-centered research in political science across its sub-disciplines. As such, it integrates and consolidates an emergent body of knowledge, but also aims to inspire future scholarship. The Handbook highlights that paying systematic attention to time in political analysis yields questions and insights that are of relevance to a very broad range of political scientists working within different theoretical, methodological and epistemological traditions. The Handbook covers comparative politics and government; public policy; international relations; and political theory. Its authors are drawn from more than a dozen countries.
Republic of Moldova: Technical Assistance Report-Financial Sector Stability Review
The mission conducted a diagnostic review of the financial system and proposes a Technical Assistance Roadmap (TARM) to support the authorities’ efforts to strengthen their detection of risks and vulnerabilities and to enhance capacity in financial sector oversight and development. Two modules were undertaken during this FSSR mission. The financial stability module focused on areas agreed with the NBM and NCFM during the scoping stage: financial sector oversight, financial stability (macroprudential framework, systemic risk assessment, and stress testing), financial crisis management, financial inclusion and capital markets development. The financial sector statistics module focused on key data gaps hampering financial stability analysis as well as statistical reporting to the IMF’s Statistics Department.
