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Sovereign Debt
This book is an attempt to build some structure around the issues of sovereign debt to help guide economists, practitioners, and policymakers through this complicated, but not intractable, subject.
Life After Debt
This volume provides a pluralistic discussion from world-renowned scholars on the international aspects of the debt crisis and prospects for resolution. It provides a comprehensive evaluation of how the debt crisis has impacted Western Europe, the emerging markets and Latin America, and puts forward different suggestions for recovery.
The Motives to Borrow
Governments issue debt for good and bad reasons. While the good reasons—intertemporal tax-smoothing, fiscal stimulus, and asset management—can explain some of the increases in public debt in recent years, they cannot account for all of the observed changes. Bad reasons for borrowing are driven by political failures associated with intergenerational transfers, strategic manipulation, and common pool problems. These political failures are a major cause of overborrowing though budgetary institutions and fiscal rules can play a role in mitigating governments’ tendencies to overborrow. While it is difficult to establish a clear causal link from high public debt to low output growth, it is likely that some countries pay a price—in terms of lower growth and greater output volatility—for excessive debt accumulation.
Capital Flows at Risk: Taming the Ebbs and Flows
The volatility of capital flows to emerging markets continues to pose challenges to policymakers. In this paper, we propose a new framework to answer critical policy questions: What policies and policy frameworks are most effective in dampening sharp capital flow movements in response to global shocks? What are the near- versus medium-term trade-offs of different policies? We tackle these questions using a quantile regression framework to predict the entire future probability distribution of capital flows to emerging markets, based on current domestic structural characteristics, policies, and global financial conditions. This new approach allows policymakers to quantify capital flows risks and evaluate policy tools to mitigate them, thus building the foundation of a risk management framework for capital flows.
When Nations Can't Default
War reparations have been large and small, repaid and defaulted on, but the consequences have almost always been significant. Ever since Keynes made his case against German reparations in The Economic Consequences of the Peace, the effects of transfer payments have been hotly debated. When Nations Can't Default tells the history of war reparations and their consequences by combining history, political economy, and open economy macroeconomics. It visits often forgotten episodes and tells the story of how reparations were mostly repaid - and when they were not. Analysing fifteen episodes of war reparations, this book argues that reparations are unlike other sovereign debt because repayment is enforced by military and political force, making it a senior liability of the state.
Inflation and Public Debt Reversals in Advanced Economies
This paper quantitatively assesses the effects of inflation shocks on the public debt-to-GDP ratio in 19 advanced economies using simulation and estimation approaches. The simulations based on the debt dynamics equation and estimations of impulse responses by local projections both suggest that a 1 percentage point shock to inflation rate reduces the debt-to-GDP ratio by about 0.5 to 1 percentage points. The results also suggest that the impact is larger and more persistent when the debt maturity is longer, but the difference from the benchmark case is not significant. These results imply that modestly higher inflation, even if accompanied by some financial repression, could reduce public debt burden only marginally in many advanced economies.
Public Debt Vulnerabilities in Low-Income Countries - The Evolving Landscape
This is the first joint IMF/World Bank report on public debt vulnerabilities in low income countries (LICs). It examines debt-related developments and their underlying causes since the onset of the global financial crisis. The findings will inform the upcoming review of the IMF/WB debt sustainability framework for LICs. Over this period, improved macroeconomic performance in LICs, combined with HIPC/MDRI debt relief and high demand for commodities, contributed to improved LIC creditworthiness. At the same time, new borrowing opportunities emerged as a result of the accommodative liquidity conditions in international capital markets, the deepening of domestic financial markets for some LICs, and the growing lending activities of non-Paris Club countries. These new financing possibilities helped mitigate the decline in Paris Club lending to LICs and have been associated with a shift toward greater reliance on non-concessional credit. The changing financing landscape has been most significant for frontier LICs.
Department of Agriculture and Related Agencies Appropriations for Fiscal Year 1969, Hearings Before ... 90-2, on H.R. 16913
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The Long Shadow of Default
Rethinking the causes and consequences of Britain's default on its First World War debts to the United States of America The Long Shadow of Default focuses on an important but neglected example of sovereign default between two of the wealthiest and most powerful democracies in modern history. The United Kingdom accrued considerable financial debts to the United States during and immediately after the First World War. In 1934, the British government unilaterally suspended payment on these debts. This book examines why the United Kingdom was one of the last major powers to default on its war debts to the United States and how these outstanding obligations affected political and economic relati...
