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The Oxford Handbook of the Ethiopian Economy
From a war-torn and famine-plagued country at the beginning of the 1990s, Ethiopia is today emerging as one of the fastest-growing economies in Africa. Growth in Ethiopia has surpassed that of every other sub-Saharan country over the past decade and is forecast by the International Monetary Fund to exceed 8 percent over the next two years. The government has set its eyes on transforming the country into a middle-income country by 2025, and into a leading manufacturing hub in Africa. The Oxford Handbook of the Ethiopian Economy studies this country's unique model of development, where the state plays a central role, and where a successful industrialization drive has challenged the long-held e...
Prices of vegetables and fruits in Ethiopia: Trends and implications for consumption and nutrition
We study price behavior of vegetables and fruits in Ethiopia over the 15 year period from 2005 to 2019 based on large-scale retail and producer price datasets. This is an important topic given the importance of prices for consumption decisions for these nutritious crops. A number of notable findings come from the analysis. First, prices are rapidly increasing both in real terms and when compared to cereals. At the end of the study period in 2019, vegetables and fruits in real terms were significantly more expensive than 15 years earlier. Especially green leafy vegetables show a significant price rise, likely because few high-yielding varieties of these vegetables have been made available and...
The economics of teff: Exploring Ethiopia’s biggest cash crop
Considerable poverty and food insecurity in Ethiopia, combined with the overwhelming majority of Ethiopians who depend on agriculture for their livelihoods, make agricultural transformation a crucial development goal for the country. One promising improvement is to increase production of teff, the calorie- and nutrient-rich but low-yielding staple. The Economics of Teff: Exploring Ethiopia’s Biggest Cash Crop examines key aspects of teff production, marketing, and consumption, with a focus on opportunities for and challenges to further growth. The authors identify ways to realize teff’s potential, including improving productivity and resilience, selecting and scaling up new technologies, establishing distribution systems adapted to different areas’ needs, managing labor demand and postharvest operations, and increasing access to larger and more diverse markets. The book’s analysis and policy conclusions should be useful to policy makers, researchers, and others concerned with Ethiopia’s economic development.
The rising costs of nutritious foods: The case of Ethiopia
Costs of healthy diets are worryingly rising in a number of developed and emerging economies. However, less is known on these costs for developing countries. Using price data from a large number of markets in Ethiopia, we find that real prices of all nutritionally-rich food groups increased significantly (between 19 and 62 percent) over the period 2007 to 2016. This contrasts with (1) staple crops (grains, roots, and tubers), which did not show any price increase, and (2) oils, fats, and sugar, the prices of which decreased substantially. Using detailed nationwide datasets and relying on time series methods, we link these price increases to changes in local markets, demand and supply factors...
The rising costs of animal-source foods in Ethiopia: Evidence and implications
In many developing countries in which staple foods dominate the composition of diets, higher consumption of animal-source foods (ASF) is associated with significant nutritional benefits. Given the importance of prices for consumption decisions in these settings, we analyze ASF price patterns in the last decade (2007-2016), relying on a large-scale price dataset collected in 116 urban retail markets in Ethiopia. We document important seasonal and spatial patterns and we find, worryingly, that real prices of ASF have been increasing in the last decade by between 32 to 36 percent for three major ASF – milk, eggs, and meat. Similar price increases are noted in rural and urban areas and for tradable and non-tradable ASFs. This price trend is in contrast with staple cereals for which real prices stayed at similar levels over the last decade. As we estimate that a price increase of this magnitude would reduce consumption of ASF by approximately 25 percent, holding other things constant, it seems that more investments and attention to the production of ASF and the livestock sector are needed to reduce ASF prices and increase their consumption in Ethiopia.
Agricultural prices during drought in Ethiopia
Expanding and extending an earlier assessment (ESSP Working Paper 88, April 2016), we analyze the evolution of crop and livestock producer prices and wages of unskilled laborers in Ethiopia between January 2014 and June 2016 to evaluate the effect of El Niño triggered droughts – which started in 2015 – that massively impacted parts of the country. The analyses reveal no evidence of widespread adverse price effects of the drought in cereal and labor markets. Real prices of major cereals were lower in the middle of 2016 compared to two years earlier, especially for maize, sorghum, and wheat – the crops that are the major source of calories in areas that were most hit by the drought. The...
Food prices and the wages of the poor: A low-cost, high-value approach to high-frequency food security monitoring
International food prices have become increasingly volatile in recent decades, with “global food crises” in 2008, 2011 and most recently in 2022. The 2008 crisis prompted international agencies to ambitiously extend their monitoring of domestic food prices in developing countries to strengthen early warning systems and food and nutrition surveillance. However, food inflation by itself is not sufficient for measuring disposable income or food affordability; for that, one must measure either changes in income or changes in an income proxy. Here we propose the use of a low-cost income proxy that can be monitored at the same high frequency and spatial granularity as food prices: the wages of...
An assessment of the livestock economy in mixed crop-livestock production systems in Ethiopia
The livestock subsector has contributed little to the remarkable economic growth recorded in Ethiopia in the last decade. In an effort to stimulate livestock production, the Ethiopian government has recently recognized livestock as an important strategic subsector in which to invest. Unlike most studies that focus purely on aspects of livestock production, this study provides a detailed descriptive assessment of the livestock production and marketing behavior of smallholder mixed crop-livestock farmers. The study uses a dataset collected in the Agricultural Growth Program baseline survey from farm households in districts of Ethiopia with high potential in grain crops production, areas which ...
Non-farm income and labor markets in rural Ethiopia
Ethiopia’s economy is rapidly transforming. However, the extent to which this is affecting off-farm income and labor markets in rural areas is not well understood. Based on a large-scale household survey in high potential agricultural areas, we find that total off-farm income (defined as wage and enterprise income) makes up 18 percent of total rural income. Wage income in both the agricultural and non-agricultural sectors accounts for 10 percent of total household income, equating in importance to livestock income. We show off-farm income and wage income to be relatively more important for the poor and female and youth-headed households. We further find that real rural wages increased by 54 percent over the last decade, mostly driven by high agricultural growth. While this wage increase is good news for the poor, it also induces adjustments in agricultural production practices, including increased adoption of labor-substituting technologies such as herbicides and mechanization. However, it also relaxes liquidity constraints in the off-season for some households, consequently leading to higher productivity.
Farmers’ grain storage and losses in Ethiopia: Measures and associates
Storage losses at the farm are often assumed to be an important contributor to presumed large postharvest losses in developing countries. However, reliable and representative data on these losses are often lacking. We study farmers’ storage decisions and self-reported storage losses for grain based on two recent large-scale household surveys conducted in major agricultural areas in Ethiopia. We show that a relatively large share of grain production is stored by farm households themselves, mainly for own consumption, and that storage technologies are rudimentary. We find that farmers’ self-reported storage losses amount to an average of 4 percent of all grain stored and 2 percent of the total harvest. These storage losses are shown to differ significantly by socio-economic variables and wealth, but also by crop and humidity. We further see strong spatial heterogeneity in storage losses, being significantly higher in the southwestern part of the country. Efforts to scale up the adoption of improved storage technologies to reduce storage losses at the farm level should take into consideration these characteristics.
