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Assessing Macrofinancial Risks from Crypto Assets
Failures in the crypto space—including the fall of Terra USD and the FTX debacle—have sparked calls for strengthening countries’ policy frameworks for crypto assets, including by enhanced regulation and supervision. How have these heightened concerns about crypto assets been picked up in systemic risk assessment, and what can be done going forward? In this paper, we introduce a conceptual macrofinancial framework to understand and track systemic risks stemming from crypto assets. Specifically, we propose a country-level Crypto-Risk Assessment Matrix (C-RAM) to summarize the main vulnerabilities, useful indicators, potential triggers and potential policy responses related to the crypto sector. We also discuss how experts and officials can weave in specific vulnerabilities stemming from crypto asset activity into their assessment of systemic risk, and how they can provide policy advice and take action to help contain systemic risks when needed.
Inequality in Good and Bad Times: A Cross-Country Approach
This paper provides evidence of a strong relationship between the short-term dynamics of growth and inequality in developing economies. We find that reductions in inequality during growth upswings are largely reversed during growth slowdowns. Using a new methodology (mediation analysis), we identify unemployment, and youth unemployment especially, as the main channel through which fluctuations in growth affect future dynamics in inequality. These findings suggest that both the quality of jobs created and labor market policies are important to ensure that growth outcomes are conducive to inequality reduction.
Understanding and Predicting Systemic Corporate Distress: A Machine-Learning Approach
In this paper, we study systemic non-financial corporate sector distress using firm-level probabilities of default (PD), covering 55 economies, and spanning the last three decades. Systemic corporate distress is identified by elevated PDs across a large portion of the firms in an economy. A machine-learning based early warning system is constructed to predict the onset of distress in one year’s time. Our results show that credit expansion, monetary policy tightening, overvalued stock prices, and debt-linked balance-sheet weaknesses predict corporate distress. We also find that systemic corporate distress events are associated with contractions in GDP and credit growth in advanced and emerging markets at different degrees and milder than financial crises.
Changing Times for Frontier Markets
This paper investigates to what extent low-income developing countries (LIDCs) characterized as frontier markets (FMs) have begun to be subject to capital flows dynamics typically associated with emerging markets (EMs). Using a sample of developing countries covering the period 2000–14, we show that: (i) average annual portfolio flows to FMs as a share of GDP outstripped those to EMs by about 0.6 percentage points of GDP; (ii) during years of heightened stress in global financial markets, portfolio flows to FMs dried up like those to EMs; and that (iii) FMs have become more integrated into international financial markets. Our findings confirm that, in terms of portfolio flows, FMs have become more similar to EMs than to the rest of LIDCs and are therefore more vulnerable to swings in global financial markets conditions. Accordingly, it is important to have in place frameworks to strengthen FMs’ resilience to adverse capital flows shocks.
IMF-Supported Programs in Low Income Countries
This paper studies the short and longer-term impact of IMF engagement in Low-Income Countries (LICs) over nearly three decades. In contrast to earlier studies, we focus on a sample composed exclusively of LICs and disentangle the different effects of IMF longer-term engagement and short-term financing using a propensity score matching approach to control for selection bias. Our results indicate that longer-term IMF support (at least five years of program engagement per decade) helped LICs sustain economic growth and boost resilience by building fiscal buffers. Interestingly, the size of IMF financing has no significant impact on economic growth, possibly pointing to the prominent role of IMF policy advice and institutional capacity building in the context of longer-term engagement. We also present evidence that the short-term IMF engagement through augmentations of existing programs or short-term and emergency facilities is positively associated with a wide range of macroeconomic outcomes. Notably, the IMF financial support has the greatest impact on short-term growth when LICs are faced with substantial macroeconomic imbalances or exogenous shocks.
Sweden
After a strong post-pandemic performance, economic activity has weakened. GDP contracted slightly in 2023. An unprecedented monetary policy tightening started in mid-2022 to rein in inflation, which has been declining after peaking at 10.8 percent in end-2022. Weak real incomes, elevated interest expenses, and declining real estate valuations have weighed on private consumption and residential investment and strained the highly levered commercial real estate sector. Policies need to carefully maneuver the economy. Strengthening productivity growth is a key medium-term challenge.
El Salvador: 2021 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for El Salvador
The pandemic interrupted ten years of growth, but El Salvador is rebounding quickly. Robust external demand, resilient remittances, and a sound management of the pandemic—with the help of a disbursement under the Rapid Financing Instrument (RFI) (SDR287.2 million or US$389 million) approved in April 2020—are supporting a strong recovery. Persistent fiscal deficits and high debt service are leading to large and increasing gross fiscal financing needs.
Democratic Republic of São Tomé and Príncipe
This paper discusses the following selected issues related to the São Tomé and Príncipe’s economy: tourism competitiveness in São Tomé and Príncipe—challenges and strategy, macro-financial linkages, private sector development, and challenges of small financial systems. São Tomé and Príncipe has experienced significantly faster growth in tourism than most tourism-dependent small states (TDSS). An application of a tourism gravity model shows that São Tomé and Príncipe is competitive in compared to TDSS. However, tourism development in this country faces broad challenges both on the micro and micro level. São Tomé and Príncipe can do well with venture capital-type financing for micro, small-, and medium-sized enterprises.
The Decade of the Multilatinas
Latin American multinationals (multilatinas) have been central in the rise of emerging markets in the last few decades. Their development comprises part of the global shift of wealth and power between nations. The rise of firms in a broad range of sectors - including construction, oil, telecommunications and the aeronautical industry - as important regional and global players is spreading: companies in Brazil, Mexico, Colombia, Chile and many others are part of this increasing phenomenon. This book analyses the trends, the countries and the firms involved, and explores the implications for the US, China, Spain and the rest of Europe. In particular, Javier Santiso examines how Spain might profit from positioning itself as a unique hub between Europe and Latin America. The Decade of the Multilatinas includes a wide range of statistical data which will be useful to scholars, policymakers and commentators on Latin America in particular, and international business and emerging markets more generally.
The Economic Impact of IMF-Supported Programs in Low-Income Countries
This paper aims to assess the economic impact of the IMF’s support through its facilities for low-income countries. It relies on two complementary econometric analyses: the first investigates the longer-term impact of IMF engagement—primarily through successive medium-term programs under the Extended Credit Facility and its predecessors (and more recently the Policy Support Instrument)—on economic growth and a range of other indicators and socioeconomic outcomes; the second focuses on the role of IMF shock-related financing—through augmentations of Extended Credit Facility arrangements and short-term and emergency financing instruments—on short-term macroeconomic performance.
