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Public Sector Economics and the Need for Reforms
Theoretically and empirically informed studies on the role and efficiency of the public sector, public wage and employment policy, privatization, tax policy, and fiscal sustainability. The public sector has grown substantially in the last fifty years. In the euro area, for example, total government expenditures have been around fifty percent of GDP since the early 2000s, resulting in a growing tax burden or high public debt or both. At the same time, government had intervened in all aspects of economic life, from the provision of public goods and services to product and labor market regulation. Research shows that the effect of government size on economic performance is positive in countries...
Retooling Development Aid in the 21st Century
Aid instruments need to adjust to new challenges and priorities. Global pandemics, climate change, increased inequality, low economic growth, and conflict have made it increasingly difficult for developing countries to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals. Retooling Development Aid in the 21st Century: The Importance of Budget Support examines the critical role of budget support by both multilateral and bilateral aid agencies to address the 21st century's development goals of eliminating poverty and protecting our global commons. Timely and smartly designed budget support remains a powerful tool to help address the new reality developing countries face, providing fast disbursing finance...
Vanuatu
As Vanuatu was recovering from the multiple natural disasters of 2023, the voluntary liquidation of Air Vanuatu in May 2024 created a major shock with significant effects on growth and business confidence. The negotiations about the future of the airline, along with developments linked to the Economic Citizenship Program (ECP) will have significant economic, social, fiscal, and financial integrity implications. Disruptions to connectivity, tourism, and services will likely affect economic activity in 2024: real GDP growth is expected to grow only by around 1 percent y/y, and the current account deficit will likely widen around 71⁄2 percent of GDP, although there is significant uncertainty to forecasts. Ongoing vulnerabilities and exposure to other risks keep the balance of risks to the downside. Structural vulnerabilities to governance, corruption, and natural disasters remain.
The Perils of International Capital
Shows how financial globalization can be perilous, holding the capacity to finance the durability of authoritarian governments.
Vanuatu
Following a successful COVID-19 containment strategy, the border reopened in July 2022, and tourism is returning to Vanuatu. Economic activity is expected to be strong in the near term, with real GDP growing around 3.4 percent in 2023, as tourism and construction activities resume. High imported prices are likely to stoke inflation and push the current account into deficit, while fiscal policy will turn more expansionary. The Economic Citizenship Program (ECP) is facing significant challenges, with important implications for revenue and governance, while Air Vanuatu, the national airline, is facing serious operational and financial difficulties. Key structural vulnerabilities relating to climate change, limited infrastructure development capacity, and weak governance, persist.
The Fission of Power
Something’s afoot with power. The nation state is being challenged structurally and institutionally. Its model of hierarchical power, monopoly on violence, and binding law, is being squeezed from below and from above - by grassroots organizations on the one end and supranational organizations on the other. Development aid is becoming caught up with strategic interests in the political, military and economic areas. Centralized power with major international oil companies is a thing of the past. The internet has the capacity to bring people together, or to divide them. All of these developments are changing our world drastically, and altering our view on the world. In ‘The Fission of Power...
Political Mistakes and Policy Failures in International Relations
This edited volume analyzes mistakes in different areas of international relations including the realms of security, foreign policy, finance, health, development, environmental policy and migration. By starting out from a broad concept of mistakes as “something [considered to have] gone wrong” the edited volume enables comparisons of various kinds of mistakes from a range of analytical perspectives, including objectivist and interpretivist approaches, in order to draw out answers to the following guiding questions: • How does one identify and research a mistake? • Why do mistakes happen? • How are actors made responsible? • When and how do actors learn from mistakes? This book will be of great interest to scholars, undergraduate and postgraduate students as well as practitioners in International Relations, Foreign Policy Analysis, Security Studies, International Political Economy, and Diplomatic History.
The Oil & Gas Year Trinidad and Tobago 2019
TOGY is pleased to present The Oil & Gas Year Trinidad and Tobago 2019, published in partnership with the Ministry of Energy and Energy Industries and the Energy Chamber of Trinidad and Tobago. The Oil & Gas Year Trinidad and Tobago 2019 analyses this changing landscape and the approaches the country can take to maintain its competitive edge in the mid-to-long term, including the development of NiQuan Energy’s GTL plant and the establishment of the island nation as a logistics and training hub for Guyana’s burgeoning oil and gas industry. This fifth edition covers efforts to resolve continued gas curtailments via cross-border deals and negotiations with Grenada, Venezuela and Guyana, as ...
Short-term and long-term effects of cash for work: Evidence from a randomized controlled trial in Tunisia
While a growing literature analyzes the economic effects of cash for work programs in developing countries, there remains little evidence about the longer-term effects of these interventions. This paper presents findings from a randomized controlled trial evaluating a three month intervention providing public works employment in rural Tunisia. The evaluation design incorporates two dimensions of randomization — community-level randomization to treatment and control, and individual-level randomization among eligible individuals — and a sample of 2,718 individuals was tracked over five years. The findings suggest that cash for work leads to significant increases in labor market engagement, assets, consumption, financial inclusion, civic engagement, psychological well being, and women’s empowerment one-year post-treatment; however, these effects have largely attenuated to zero five years post-treatment, with the exception of a positive effect on assets. There is also evidence of positive spillover effects within treatment communities, but these effects similarly attenuate over time
The Needle in the Haystack: What Drives Labor and Product Market Reforms in Advanced Countries?
The political economy literature has put forward a multitude of hypotheses regarding the drivers of structural reforms, but few, if any, empirically robust findings have emerged thus far. To make progress, we draw a parallel with model uncertainty in the growth literature and provide a new version of the Bayesian averaging of maximum likelihood estimates (BAMLE) technique tailored to binary logit models. Relying on a new database of major past labor and product market reforms in advanced countries, we test a large set of variables for robust correlation with reform in each area. We find widespread support for the crisis-induces-reform hypothesis. Outside pressure increases the likelihood of reform in certain areas: reforms are more likely when other countries also undertake them and when there is formal pressure to implement them. Other robust correlates are more specific to certain areas—for example, international pressure and political factors are most relevant for product market and job protection reforms, respectively.
