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Tackling the Global Food Crisis
Russia’s war in Ukraine has exacerbated food insecurity that had already been on the rise for half a decade. Low-income countries are affected the most. This note suggests that the food and fertilizer price shock would add $9 billion in 2022 and 2023 to the import bills of the 48 most affected countries. The budgetary cost of protecting vulnerable households in these countries amounts to $5–7 billion. Strong and timely action on a global scale is needed to support vulnerable households through international humanitarian assistance and domestic fiscal measures; to maintain open trade; to enhance food production and distribution; and to invest in climate-resilient agriculture. The IMF has ...
Reforming the Greek Pension System
The Greek pension system has been costly, complex, and distortive, which has contributed to Greece’s fiscal problems and discouraged labor force participation. Several attempts to reform the system faltered due to lack of implementation, pushback by vested interests, and court rulings leading to reversals. A series of reforms introduced throughout 2015–17 unified benefit and contribution rules, removed several distortions and reduced fragmentation and costs. If fully implemented throughout the long-term, these reforms can go a long way towards enhancing the pension system affordability. However, reforms faced setbacks and fell short of creating stronger incentives to build long contribution histories, to deliver sustainable growth by improving the fiscal policy mix, and to ensure fairness and equitable burden sharing across generations and interest groups. Policy priorities should aim towards fully implementing the 2015–17 reforms and complementing them with additional reforms to address these remaining objectives.
A Rule-Based Medium-Term Fiscal Policy Framework for Tanzania
A zero net domestic financing (NDF) target has served Tanzania well in recent years, contributing to prudent expenditure policy, improved fiscal sustainability, and macroeconomic stability. Moving to a more flexible fiscal policy, however, may serve Tanzania better. The "diamond rule" proposed in this paper incorporates a permanent hard ceiling on debt and annual benchmark limits on NDF, expenditure growth, and nonconcessional external financing. This rule would provide flexibility for countercyclical policy and help define the fiscal space for infrastructure spending that is consistent with longrun fiscal sustainability. An illustrative simulation shows that Tanzania has considerable fiscal space for development spending.
Republic of Serbia
This 2014 Article IV Consultation highlights that the Serbian economy is facing serious challenges. GDP contracted by an estimated 2 percent in 2014 on account of continued falling domestic demand aggravated by floods, and weak economic activity in trading partners. This, together with the low imported inflation, pushed Serbia’s inflation rate below the National Bank of Serbia’s inflation tolerance band, allowing some easing of monetary policy. To support their economic policies over 2015–17, the authorities have requested the IMF’s assistance. The program aims to restore public debt sustainability, strengthen competitiveness and growth, and boost financial sector resilience.
Spain
This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights that Spain’s economy has continued its recovery. Real GDP expanded by 3.2 percent in 2015 with the same growth rate expected for 2016, despite a prolonged period of domestic political uncertainty. Nearly 1.1 million jobs were created over the past two years. The rebound in private consumption, exports, and investment, aided by past reforms, has remained the main driver of growth. The current account is projected to record its fourth consecutive annual surplus. Private sector balance sheets have further strengthened, while public debt remains high at about 100 percent of GDP. Real GDP growth is projected to moderate to 2.3 percent in 2017.
The Effect of Regulations on the Korean Mobile Telecommunication Industry
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Regional Economic Issues--Special Report 25 Years of Transition
The past 25 years have seen a dramatic transformation in Europe’s former communist countries, resulting in their reintegration with the global economy, and, in most cases, major improvements in living standards. But the task of building full market economies has been difficult and protracted. Liberalization of trade and prices came quickly, but institutional reforms—such as governance reform, competition policy, privatization and enterprise restructuring—often faced opposition from vested interests. The results of the first years of transition were uneven. All countries suffered high inflation and major recessions as prices were freed and old economic linkages broke down. But the scale of output losses and the time taken for growth to return and inflation to be brought under control varied widely. Initial conditions and external factors played a role, but policies were critical too. Countries that undertook more front-loaded and bold reforms were rewarded with faster recovery and income convergence. Others were more vulnerable to the crises that swept the region in the wake of the 1997 Asia crisis.
United Republic of Tanzania
The Tanzanian economy performed better than expected in the face of adverse shocks owing to supportive fiscal and monetary policies. The government is committed to contain and prioritize public spending. Further strengthening of investment and debt management processes is an urgent priority. Structural reforms will continue to support financial deepening and enhanced public financial management. Over the medium term, maintaining social gains and the growth momentum will require more widening fiscal changes with the objectives of both stepping up domestic revenue mobilization and increasing spending efficiency.
Tanzania
Monetary and fiscal easing, together with specific interventions under the Economic Rescue Plan, helped contain the immediate impact of the global crisis, but private sector recovery remains nascent. Inflation, persistently high during 2009 owing to large increases in food prices, has declined to single-digit levels. Revenues continue to underperform relative to the budget, resulting in a modest scaling back in expenditure to limit deterioration of the fiscal deficit. Monetary policy has produced a low interest rate environment, but private sector credit growth has slowed sharply.
Central Banks Quasi-Fiscal Policies and Inflation
Although central banks have recently taken unconventional policy actions to try to shore up macroeconomic and financial stability, little theory is available to assess the consequences of such measures. This paper offers a theoretical model with which such policies can be analyzed. In particular, the paper shows that in the absence of the fiscal authorities' full backing of the central bank's balance sheet, strange things can happen. For instance, an exit from quantitative easing could be inflationary and central banks cannot successfully unwind inflated balance sheets. Therefore, the fiscal authorities' full backing of the monetary authorities' quasi-fiscal operations is a pre-condition for effective monetary policy.
