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Business Cycle with Bank Intermediation in Oil Economies
The structural model in this paper proposes a micro-founded framework that incorporates an active banking sector with an oil-producing sector. The primary goal of adding a banking sector is to examine the role of an interbank market on shocks, introduce a national development fund and study its link to the banking sector and the government. The government and the national development fund directly play key roles in the propagation of the oil shock. In contrast, the banking sector and the labor market, through perfect substitution between the oil and non-oil sectors, have major indirect impacts in spreading shocks.
Sovereigns and Financial Intermediaries Spillovers
We examine the spillover effects between sovereigns and banks in a model with a heterogeneous banking system. An increase in sovereign’s default risk affects financial intermediaries through two channels in this model. First, banks’ funding costs might increase, inducing higher interest rates on loans and bonds and a cut back in these assets. Second, financial regulator’s risk-weighted asset framework would assign higher weights to lower quality assets, implying a portfolio rebalancing and more deleveraging. While capital adequacy requirements weaken the impact of shocks emerging from the real economy, they amplify the effect of shocks on banks’ balance sheets.
The Sovereign-Bank Nexus in Emerging Markets in the Wake of the COVID-19 Pandemic
The COVID-19 pandemic has brought the relationship between sovereigns and banks—the so-called sovereign-bank nexus—in emerging market economies to the fore as bank holdings of domestic sovereign debt have surged. This paper examines the empirical relevance of this nexus to assess how it could amplify macro-financial stability risks. The findings show that an increase in sovereign credit risk can adversely affect banks’ balance sheets and credit supply, especially in countries with less-well-capitalized banking systems. Sovereign distress can also impact banks indirectly through the nonfinancial corporate sector by constraining their funding and reducing their capital expenditure. Notably, the effects on banks and corporates are strongly nonlinear in the size of the sovereign distress.
Djibouti
This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that Djibouti’s economic growth, driven by large investment projects, continued its rapid pace in 2014. Aggregate investment reached 44 percent of GDP in 2014 and is expected to peak at 57 percent in 2015–16. GDP growth is expected to rise from 6 percent in 2014 to about 6.5 percent in 2015–16 and to 7 percent in 2017–19. Inflation is projected at 3 percent in 2015 and about 3.5 percent in 2016–18 as a large amount of infrastructure spending increases the demand for housing and services. Central bank gross foreign assets are projected to remain strong, permitting full currency board coverage over the period 2015–20.
Armenia
This Technical Assistance Report discusses the technical advice and recommendations given by the IMF mission to the authorities of Armenia regarding design of fiscal rules and associated fiscal and institutional frameworks. Armenia has made significant strides in enhancing macroeconomic stability over the past two decades. Although Armenia’s public debt remains sustainable, a prolonged adjustment is needed to restore sizable fiscal buffers, warranting an upgrade of the fiscal rule framework. The existing debt-rule-based framework provides insufficient operating guidance to fiscal policy and is not flexible enough to deal with severe economic shocks. Mechanisms to deal with a potential breach of the 60 percent debt ceiling and the 50 percent debt brake are excessively restrictive and need to be overhauled.
Fintech, Inclusive Growth and Cyber Risks: Focus on the MENAP and CCA Regions
Financial technology (fintech) is emerging as an innovative way to achieve financial inclusion and the broader objective of inclusive growth. Thus far, fintech in the MENAP and CCA remains below potential with limited impact on financial inclusion. This paper reviews the fintech landscape in the MENAP and CCA regions, identifies the constraints to the growth of fintech and its contribution to inclusive growth and considers policy options to unlock the potential.
Tunisia
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Context. On June 7, 2013, the Executive Board approved a 24-month Stand-By Arrangement in an amount equivalent to 400 percent of quota (SDR 1.146 billion or about $1.75 billion). To date, SDR 573 million equivalent to $877 million has been disbursed. The pillars of the program are to: (i) achieve short-term macroeconomic stability; (ii) lay the foundation for stronger and more inclusive growth; and (iii) protect the most vulnerable. Background. Progress in the political transition is leading to increased donor support this year, including from regional partners. On the economic front, growth remains timid, headline inflation has increased, and rising external imbalances hav...
Business Cycle with Bank Intermediation in Oil Economies
The structural model in this paper proposes a micro-founded framework that incorporates an active banking sector with an oil-producing sector. The primary goal of adding a banking sector is to examine the role of an interbank market on shocks, introduce a national development fund and study its link to the banking sector and the government. The government and the national development fund directly play key roles in the propagation of the oil shock. In contrast, the banking sector and the labor market, through perfect substitution between the oil and non-oil sectors, have major indirect impacts in spreading shocks.
Markov Decision Processes
The Wiley-Interscience Paperback Series consists of selected books that have been made more accessible to consumers in an effort to increase global appeal and general circulation. With these new unabridged softcover volumes, Wiley hopes to extend the lives of these works by making them available to future generations of statisticians, mathematicians, and scientists. "This text is unique in bringing together so many results hitherto found only in part in other texts and papers. . . . The text is fairly self-contained, inclusive of some basic mathematical results needed, and provides a rich diet of examples, applications, and exercises. The bibliographical material at the end of each chapter i...
