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This volume examines the implications of greater financial integration on the international monetary and financial system, and how it should be reformed. Various experts consider the most disruptive manifestations of instability and the appropriate policy responses, including exchange rate volatility and misalignments; unstable capital flows to emerging market economies; abrupt capital flow reversals; and private sector involvement in crisis resolution. The IMF’s role in crisis prevention and resolution is also examined.
This paper looks at whether the aggregate ERM money supply has been a useful predictor of short-term changes in inflation and growth, and long-term trends in price levels among the core ERM countries. The evidence suggests that over the period since 1987, when there have been no realignments, the ERM money supply performs at least as well, and arguably better, than the individual national aggregates in predicting nominal aggregates such as inflation and the price level, while neither money supply is a good predictor of real activity.
In the past two centuries, the Rothschild family has been at the center of great events in Europe and the world, such as the defeat of Napoleon at Waterloo and the development of the Suez Canal. In this National Book Award finalist, Frederic Morton brings the family to life, starting with Mayer of Frankfurt, longtime adviser to Germany’s princes, who broke through the barriers of the Jewish ghetto and placed his family on the road to wealth and power, followed by Lord Alfred in London, Baron Philippe in Paris, and many others. “[Morton’s] tale grows fascinating, luxuriating in the social and human details of what happened once the Rothschild tribe had financed England, bailed out the returning French Bourbons, helped Austria intervene in Italy and lent millions to the Holy See itself.” — William Harlan Hale, The New York Times “Hardly a page without sparkle. Morton writes a chromium-plate style... [he] enables the reader to grasp some of the fundamental secrets of the Rothschild success — above all, its endurance.” — New York Herald Tribune Books “Vivid, witty and perceptive.” — Saturday Review
This paper summarizes the methods and types of indicators that are often employed, both insid and outside the IMF, to assess whether exchange rates are broadly in line with economic fundamentals.
This paper investigates the consequences of exchange rate volatility on the variability of export prices and quantities in the presence of market segmentation and pricing to market. Firms stabilize destination prices through systematic price discrimination, limiting the degree of exchange rate pass-through. Consequently, the variability of exchange rates is not fully translated into prices and quantities at the point of destination. Empirical estimates using aggregate price data for the G-7 industrial countries show incomplete pass-through in variances, with considerable variation among these countries. U.S. industry specific data also indicate incomplete pass-through in most cases, with considerable variation across industries.
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