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Fiscal Politics
Two main themes of the book are that (1) politics can distort optimal fiscal policy through elections and through political fragmentation, and (2) rules and institutions can attenuate the negative effects of this dynamic. The book has three parts: part 1 (9 chapters) outlines the problems; part 2 (6 chapters) outlines how institutions and fiscal rules can offer solutions; and part 3 (4 chapters) discusses how multilevel governance frameworks can help.
The Great Demographic Reversal
This original and panoramic book proposes that the underlying forces of demography and globalisation will shortly reverse three multi-decade global trends – it will raise inflation and interest rates, but lead to a pullback in inequality. “Whatever the future holds”, the authors argue, “it will be nothing like the past”. Deflationary headwinds over the last three decades have been primarily due to an enormous surge in the world’s available labour supply, owing to very favourable demographic trends and the entry of China and Eastern Europe into the world’s trading system. This book demonstrates how these demographic trends are on the point of reversing sharply, coinciding with a...
Demand for Money
The income velocity of money-an inverse measure of the demand for money balances-is the ratio of the money value of income to the average money stock that the public (excluding banks) holds in a given period. Why the magnitude of that ratio has changed over time is the subject of Michael D. Bordo and Lars Jonung's classic study, originally published as "The Long-Run Behavior of the Velocity of Circulation." Supported by statistical data, econometric estimation techniques, and meticulous historical analysis, this work describes, in an international setting, how slow-moving economic, social, and political forces interact with the decisions households and firms make about how much money to hold...
Debt and Entanglements Between the Wars
World War I created a set of forces that affected the political arrangements and economies of all the countries involved. This period in global economic history between World War I and II offers rich material for studying international monetary and sovereign debt policies. Debt and Entanglements between the Wars focuses on the experiences of the United States, United Kingdom, four countries in the British Commonwealth (Australia, New Zealand, Canada, Newfoundland), France, Italy, Germany, and Japan, offering unique insights into how political and economic interests influenced alliances, defaults, and the unwinding of debts. The narratives presented show how the absence of effective international collaboration and resolution mechanisms inflicted damage on the global economy, with disastrous consequences.
Tumultuous Times
A rare insider's account of the inner workings of the Japanese economy, and the Bank of Japan's monetary policy, by a career central banker The Japanese economy, once the envy of the world for its dynamism and growth, lost its shine after a financial bubble burst in early 1990s and slumped further during the Global Financial Crisis in 2008. It suffered even more damage in 2011, when a severe earthquake set off the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster. However, the Bank of Japan soldiered on to combat low inflation, low growth, and low interest rates, and in many ways it served as a laboratory for actions taken by central banks in other parts of the world. Masaaki Shirakawa, who led the bank as governor from 2008 to 2013, provides a rare insider's account of the workings of Japanese economic and monetary policy during this period and how it challenged mainstream economic thinking.
International Financial Instability
This book explores the potential and problems of bank safety and efficiency arising from the rapidly growing area of cross-border banking in the form of branches or subsidiaries with primarily only national prudential regulation. There are likely to be differences in the treatment of the same bank operating in different countries or of different banks from different home countries operating in the same country with respect to deposit insurance provisions, declaration of insolvency, resolution of insolvencies, and lender of last resort protection. The book identifies these protection problems and discusses possible solutions, such as greater cross-border cooperation, harmonization and organiz...
Democratizing Finance
We are only in the early stages of a broader revolution that will impact every aspect of the global economy, including commerce and government services. Coming financial technology innovations could improve the quality of life for all people. Over the past few decades, digital technology has transformed finance. Financial technology (fintech) has enabled more people with fewer resources, in more places around the world, to take advantage of banking, insurance, credit, investment, and other financial services. Marion Laboure and Nicolas Deffrennes argue that these changes are only the tip of the iceberg. A much broader revolution is under way that, if steered correctly, will lead to huge and ...
Imperfect Knowledge and Monetary Policy
Based on lectures given as part of The Stone Lectures in Economics, this book discusses the problem of formulating monetary policy in practice, under the uncertain circumstances which characterize the real world. The first lecture highlights the limitations of decision rules suggested by the academic literature and recommends an approach involving, first, a firm reliance on the few fundamental and robust results of monetary economics and, secondly, a pragmatic attitude to policy implementation, taking into consideration lessons from central banking experience. The second lecture revisits Milton Friedman's questions about the effects of active stabilization policies on business cycle fluctuations. It explores the implications of a simple model where the policy maker has imperfect knowledge about potential output and the private sector forms expectations according to adaptive learning. This lecture shows that imperfect knowledge limits the scope for active stabilization policy and strengthens the case for conservatism.
Walking the Highwire
Walking the Highwire tells the story of the Eurozone Crisis from the perspective of the former Vice-President of the European Commission who was responsible for Economic and Monetary Affairs in 2010-2014. It is a comprehensive European account that covers both events and decisions in Brussels and Frankfurt and in the member states, both in distressed countries and creditor states. It also provides an economic-political analysis of the crisis and its management, recognising that the Euro was created politically, and saved politically. Thoroughly researched and based on economic analysis of the time, reports on various meetings and the author's own speaking notes and diary, this book begins with a narrative of crisis management 2009-2012, before moving on to address the beginning of the recovery from 2013-2014. It concludes with the lessons learnt from the crisis and a programme for reform of the Eurozone in the 2020s, with contemporary policy relevance. This is an entertaining and engaging account which will be of interest to a wide audience: scholars and students, practitioners and commentators of the Eurozone.
Optimal Tax Administration
This paper sets out a framework for analyzing optimal interventions by a tax administration, one that parallels and can be closely integrated with established frameworks for thinking about optimal tax policy. Its key contribution is the development of a summary measure of the impact of administrative interventions—the “enforcement elasticity of tax revenue”—that is a sufficient statistic for the behavioral response to such interventions, much as the elasticity of taxable income serves as a sufficient statistic for the response to tax rates. Amongst the applications are characterizations of the optimal balance between policy and administrative measures, and of the optimal compliance gap.
