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Climate Challenges in Fragile and Conflict-Affected States
Fragile and conflict-affected states (FCS) already face higher temperatures than other countries and will be more exposed to extreme heat and weather events going forward. Using innovative approaches, the paper finds that in FCS, climate vulnerability and underlying fragilities—namely conflict, heavy dependence on rainfed agriculture, and weak capacity—exacerbate each other, amplifying the negative impact on people and economies. FCS suffer more severe and persistent GDP losses than other countries due to climate shocks because their underlying fragilities amplify the impact of shocks, in particular in agriculture. At the same time, climate shocks worsen underlying fragilities, namely conflict. Macro-critical adaptation policies are needed to facilitate the immediate response to climate shocks and to build climate resilience over time. Sizeable and sustained international support—especially grants, concessional financing and capacity development—is urgent to avoid worse outcomes, including forced displacement and migration. The IMF is stepping up support to FCS in dealing with climate challenges through carefully tailored policy advice, financing, and capacity development.
Japan's Public Sector Balance Sheet
This paper compiles and reviews the evolution of Japan’s Public Sector Balance Sheet (PSBS). In the past, large crossholdings of assets and liabilities within the public sector played a role in sustaining a high level of public debt and low interest rates. The Fiscal Investment and Loan Fund (FILF) channeled all postal deposits and pension savings to financing of public sector borrowing. After the FILF refrom in 2000, however, the Post Bank and pension funds shifted their assets to the portfolio investments and are seeking to maximize risk-adjusted returns. This has changed the implications of crossholdings for public debt management. In the future, population aging is expected to add more pressures on the PSBS, which already saw a considerable decrease of net worth over the last three decades.
The Cost of Future Policy: Intertemporal Public Sector Balance Sheets in the G7
This paper compiles the Intertemporal Public Sector Balance Sheets for all G7 countries and examines their relationship with government borrowing costs. In 2018, all G7 countries have negative Intertemporal Net Financial Worth (INFW), falling short of their intertemporal budget constraint. A decomposition of the evolution of INFW shows that short-term fluctuations are mainly driven by fiscal policy changes, while in the long run demographic changes and health and pension obligations play a larger role. We find that on average a 10 percentage point of GDP increase in INFW reduces the (future) 10-1 year sovereign yield curve spread by 2.8 basis points. This results suggest that financial markets pay attention to governments’ future policy obligations, in addition to its current assets and liabilities.
The Philosophy of Environmental Emotions
This volume presents new philosophical perspectives on environmental emotions. It explores the motivating nature of emotions such as anger, grief, and hope in relation to the current climate crisis. Many of our emotional responses to the climate crisis take a distressed form like anxiety, despair, or grief. However, these emotions almost always coexist with hope, a drive toward action, or a strengthened sense of relationality and belonging. This book explores the different levels at which these tensions take place. Part I discusses the conceptual and linguistic notions we use to make sense of our ecological predicament. Part II looks at the embedded dimension of our emotions: how we feel abo...
Barbados
This paper discusses key findings of the Financial System Stability Assessment Report on Barbados. Barbados has a relatively well-developed financial system, including a large offshore sector. The onshore system is dominated by large, regionally active banks. Banking services to the population are also provided by the credit union sector. With a deteriorating fiscal situation and weak growth prospects, Barbados faces considerable macroeconomic vulnerabilities. Although the financial system does not appear to be a source of immediate risk, its position appears to be deteriorating, with implications for systemic stability.
Uganda
This Technical Assistance Report proposes draft regulations to address issues in the provisions of the Public Finance Management Bill 2012. The draft regulations propose a virement regime which serves to protect the composition of the budget, in particular prevention of virement between development and recurrent spending which will be particularly important in light of the new fiscal environment. It is also proposed to further strengthen the expenditure controls through a requirement to regularize excess expenditures through the contingencies fund and requiring reporting of outstanding payments.
Islamic Republic of Afghanistan
KEY ISSUES Context. Over the past decade, Afghanistan has made enormous progress in reconstruction, development and lifting per capita income. Security and political uncertainties, and weak institutions have constrained growth and weighed on social outcomes. With significant reform efforts and donor support, Afghanistan has maintained macroeconomic stability, implemented important structural reforms, and built policy buffers, but significant vulnerabilities remain. The IMF has been supporting Afghanistan through technical assistance and a three-year Extended Credit Facility (ECF) arrangement. Reviews under the ECF arrangement have been delayed. Outlook and risks. 2014 is a crucial year in th...
Republic of Lithuania
This Fiscal Transparency Evaluation (FTE) paper on the Republic of Lithuania estimated Lithuania’s public sector financial position to take a more comprehensive view of public finances in Lithuania. While Lithuania’s overall assessment is comparable to or better than other EU Member States that have undergone an FTE, there is room for further improvement. While the Lithuanian authorities publish a large volume of fiscal reports, they are somewhat fragmented and not easily comparable. The paper also highlights that fiscal risk analysis and management also meets good or advanced practice in many areas but are slightly weaker than the other pillars of the evaluation. It is recommended to consolidate the present array of fiscal reports into a smaller number of user-friendly reports that improve the consistency and comparability of information, as well as its transparency. The report also provides a more detailed evaluation of Lithuania’s fiscal transparency practices and recommended reform priorities.
Guinea-Bissau
Guinea Bissau’s socio-political context remained stable during the transition to an opposition-led new government, but the country is facing an adverse external shock. Disappointing cashew nut exports have widened the current account deficit substantially, while financing is constrained by tighter regional financial conditions. High food prices are causing food insecurity risks. Against this backdrop, the authorities have requested augmentation of access of 40 percent of quota (SDR 11.36 million) to meet pressing financing needs, bringing the total program access to 140 percent of quota (SDR 39.76 million). The ECF-supported program has been catalyzing much-needed highly concessional financing, especially additional budget support.
Jordan: Technical Assistance Report-Fiscal Transparency Evaluation
Jordan has taken important steps to enhance its fiscal transparency over the past decade. Notably, there is a comprehensive legal framework for the management of public finances. Fiscal reports have become more comprehensive and cover a high proportion of public sector institutions. The frequency of in-year reporting is at an advanced level, as is the timeliness of publication of the government’s annual financial statements. Fiscal statistics are disseminated in accordance with international standards (SDDS). Fiscal forecasts and budgets have become more forward looking and policy oriented with the introduction of a five-year medium-term budget framework and a program classification. As a result of improvements in fiscal transparency practices, in the 2019 Open Budget Survey, Jordan scored above the global average for transparency, and is the only country in the region ranked overall as ‘green’ on this measure. Nevertheless, the FTE provides a more detailed and in-depth analysis with a broader focus.
